We’re not even into training camp yet, but after reviewing some NFL rosters, a few teams stand out as live candidates to win the Super Bowl. At their current odds, it feels like a good time to buy these teams heading into the season.
Buffalo Bills +750
According to FanDuel, the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles are all at +750, with the Lions slightly below them, rounding out a tier of the top five ‘favorites.’ Of those, the Bills are the best bet. The Eagles would have to repeat, and the Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl hangover. There are only two times in Patrick Mahomes’ career when he did not make the Super Bowl: his first year as a starter and the year after a Super Bowl loss.
The Detroit Lions suffered a major drainage from their coaching staff, and while Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are comparable rivals, we have seen Allen go toe-to-toe with the likes of Patrick Mahomes. Lamar Jackson tends to play too anxiously, turn the ball over, and have to play from behind. The thing stopping Buffalo has been their defense, which is why it’s curious that fans were disappointed the Bills focused mostly on defense in the draft.
Allen has proven he can make it work with lesser talent; he needs a defense that can get a key stop. Adding Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, and Larry Ogunjobi in free agency, along with TJ Sanders, Landon Jackson, and Deone Walker in the draft, the Bills now have a defensive line that can wear down offensive units and get stops late. That doesn’t factor in drafting an athletic cornerback in the first round.
Considering the AFC East looks to be scrambling or resetting beyond them, this team should win a lot of games and may enter the playoffs with the No. 1 seed. Their odds will be much lower by then.
Minnesota Vikings +2200
The Minnesota Vikings won 14 games last year but sit at 22/1 to win the Super Bowl due to major questions at quarterback. However, for the sake of taking a team with longer odds, let’s consider that Kevin O’Connell—the coach who has won games with Josh Dobbs and Sam Darnold—may be able to get the most out of second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy was a top-10 draft pick, and Minnesota traded up for him. There’s a chance his best is quite good.
If that’s the case, and a 14-win team has upgraded the most important position, they could be live contenders. Beyond what McCarthy can be, the bar set by Sam Darnold is not massively high when looking at his career. If McCarthy can exceed that, the Vikings have a shot to see these odds drop significantly soon.
Minnesota used the money Seattle gave Darnold to add Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Jordan Mason, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, Isaiah Rodgers, and a few more players. With a first-round pick on the offensive line, they upgraded all three interior spots this offseason. Brian Flores now has more pieces on the defensive line to work with. This team is dangerous, and 22/1 is worth betting on McCarthy being as good as the Vikings seem to think he is.
Houston Texans +2500
The Houston Texans had a down year last season. Everyone will tell you about the Texans’ falloff. The offense obviously was an issue, but despite that, the team won their division, won a playoff game, and went into Arrowhead and kept it tight with the Kansas City Chiefs. Their second-round loss to Kansas City was actually a much more contested match than the year prior at Baltimore.
Now, the Texans have addressed the offensive coordinator, and while some moves are questionable, they did shake things up on the line. Either way, it fits better with C.J. Stroud, who is still one of the best up-and-coming quarterbacks in the NFL. They added multiple wide receivers after seeing what injuries can do to depth, and they may have the best defense in the NFL on paper.
Will Anderson is entering year three, and Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre are entering year four. Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock are entering year two, with a few veterans like CJ Gardner-Johnson, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Danielle Hunter giving them an extra edge.
If a second-round loss is a bad year, a bounce-back could mean at least an AFC Championship. Their odds should drop.
