The NFL is known for parity, and every year there are roughly five to seven new playoff teams that missed out the year prior. The New England Patriots are +155 to make the playoffs, but given the current odds, this is a value bet worth considering.
Coaching Staff
First, the coaching staff is going to be improved, which is one of the most important factors in the NFL. Mike Vrabel has coached for six years and made the playoffs three times. He has four winning seasons, and the two losing seasons came after the A.J. Brown trade that he emphatically disagreed with. Vrabel went 4-10 with Malik Willis, Josh Dobbs, and Will Levis in that two-year stretch, and outside of that is 50-35 as a head coach. He has always picked good offensive coordinators, and while Josh McDaniels is a poor head coach, he has always been capable as a coordinator. His defensive coordinator was in Tennessee with him, so the philosophy will be similar. The staff is built to hit the ground running, which should provide a much higher floor than what we just saw.
Drake Maye Step
Vrabel brings the floor, and Maye brings the ceiling. Maye has all the makings of a fantasy football breakout, and with that would come a real-life breakout, something common for quarterbacks in their second season.
There have been 36 quarterbacks to start the majority of their games in year two. Of them, 25 saw their team improve on its record, with 12 teams winning 10 or more games and 17 winning nine or more. Maye has the look of a second-year breakout, and even quarterbacks like Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota saw their teams win six more games in year two. Maye could be next.
Offensive Additions
It helps when the team invests around you. Not only will Maye be better, but the players around him are much improved. Stefon Diggs was a flashy free agent signing, and Mack Hollins adds depth. With Kyle Williams drafted on Day Two, the wide receiver room will look completely different. The Patriots will upgrade at both tackle spots and have two centers competing to improve that position. When you add in TreVeyon Henderson being their biggest offensive addition, this unit has a chance to be much better.
Defensive Additions
The defense is almost unrecognizable. While they drafted a tackle, receiver, running back, and center early, they spent their money on defensive free agents. The team added Milton Williams, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, and Carlton Davis as starters. Even Marcus Epps, Khyiris Tonga, Jack Gibbens, and K’Lavon Chaisson may see the field. They took Day Three swings on Joshua Farmer, Craig Woodson, and Bradyn Swinson, and all three will have chances to contribute. Do not think of these Patriots as the team from last year because they are hardly recognizable on paper.
Schedule
The New England Patriots have the second-easiest schedule according to opponent win totals. The first half of their schedule features the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers, Saints, Titans, and Browns, with one Bills game mixed in. They can win at least five of those, if not more. The Jets appear to be in a reset, and the Dolphins are listening to offers for Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill. That does not scream a step forward. Do not be surprised if the Patriots roll into November with a winning record and a direct path to the playoffs.
